Trial Probability of Success

clinical

Machine-learning Probability of Success (POS) for ONE clinical trial, scored live from the trial's design features (phase, blinding, statistical-analysis-plan mention, enrollment, arm count, sites, randomization, interventional / treatment flags, plus the resolved sponsor). Returns pos_score as a PERCENTAGE (0-100, two decimals; 74.25 = 74.25%) alongside the trial's status, phase and last_updated. The lookup key is the trial's registry_id - copy it from a trial search / sample result (the id / trial_id field); an unknown id returns HTTP 404, an unavailable inference service returns HTTP 502. Requires a workspace tier that includes the clinical-trial-pos tool (its own daily rate limit). The response carries NO feature breakdown - present the score as a model estimate, never as a factual outcome probability or clinical advice.

When to use it

probability of success for one specific trial
de-risk a single trial's design against the model baseline

Getting started

Base URL

https://app.caelrith.com/api/v1/tools

Authentication

Include your API key in the x-api-key header.

Parameters

Query parameters

Parameter	Type	Required	Description
trialId	string	Yes	Trial registry id (registry_id, e.g. an NCT id). Copy it exactly from a trial search / sample result (the id / trial_id field); unknown ids return HTTP 404.

Example request

curl -H "x-api-key: YOUR_API_KEY" \
  "https://app.caelrith.com/api/v1/tools/clinical/trial-pos?trialId=your_trialId"

Response envelope

Successful responses wrap the payload in a success flag.

{
  "success": true,
  "data": { /* payload */ },
  "meta": { /* pagination, totals */ }
}

Response shape

Single-object responseTRIALS

Empty results: No record found (HTTP 404)

pos_score is a model-estimated probability of success in PERCENT (0-100, two decimals; 74.25 = 74.25%) computed from the trial's design features - always present it as an estimate, never as a factual outcome probability or clinical advice. The response carries NO feature breakdown, so do not explain the score's drivers. A 404 means the registry id is unknown - report that rather than guessing another id.

Catalog version 0.0.0-generated · generated from the API source